A couple facts about Yoenis Cespedes. He is 31 years, 58 days old as of this writing; he just signed a guaranteed four year contract with the New York Mets worth $110 million dollars; and, most importantly, he is a bona-fide star. Cespedes is 15th in MLB in WAR over the last two years despite being asked to play out of position and battling through some injuries.
In light of the big commitment, one of the most important questions around the Mets now becomes, “how will Cespedes perform over the next four years?” With the Mets appearing unlikely to make a big splash again this offseason, the team will be counting on Cespedes to carry the load this year, and perhaps, beyond. Will Cespedes remain a cornerstone slugger or will aging get the best of him sooner than later?
There are two primary ways in which people make educated guesses about players: through the use of computer projections (like ZiPS or Steamer, both of which are great) or by putting together a cohort of comparable players and checking how they aged. We’ll do both.